Earth and Environmental Sciences Area Logo Earth and Environmental Sciences Area Logo
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Logo
Menu
  • About Us
    • Contact Us
    • Organizational Charts
    • Virtual Tours
    • EESA Strategic Vision
  • Our People
    • A-Z People
    • Alumni Network
    • Area Offices
    • Committees
    • Directors
    • IDEA Working Group
    • Paul A. Witherspoon
    • Postdocs & Early Careers
    • Search by Expertise
  • Careers & Opportunities
    • Careers
    • Intern Pilot w/CSUEB
    • Mentorship Program
    • Recognition & Funding Opps
    • EESA Mini Grants
    • S&E Metrics for Performance and Promotion
    • Student Opportunities
    • Supervisor EnRichment (SupER) Program
    • Promotion Metrics (Scientific)
  • Research
    • Area-Wide Program Domain
      • Earth AI & Data
    • Our Divisions
    • Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division
      • Environmental & Biological Systems Science
        • Programs
        • Environmental Remediation & Water Resources
        • Ecosystems Biology Program
        • Bioenergy
      • Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions
        • Programs
        • Climate Modeling
        • Atmospheric System Research
        • Terrestrial Ecosystem Science
      • Climate & Atmosphere Processes
        • Programs
        • Climate Modeling
        • Atmospheric System Research
      • Earth Systems & Society
        • Programs
        • Climate Modeling
    • Energy Geosciences Division
      • Discovery Geosciences
        • Programs
        • Basic Energy Sciences (BES) Geophysics
        • Basic Energy Sciences (BES) Geochemistry
        • Basic Energy Sciences (BES) Isotope
      • Energy Resources and Carbon Management
        • Programs
        • Carbon Removal & Mineralization Program
        • Carbon Storage Program
        • Geothermal Systems
        • Hydrocarbon Science
        • Nuclear Energy & Waste
      • Resilient Energy, Water & Infrastructure
        • Programs
        • Water-Energy
        • Critical Infrastructure
        • Environmental Resilience
        • Grid-Scale Subsurface Energy Storage
        • National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI)
    • Projects
    • Research at a Glance
    • Publication Lists
    • Centers and Resources
    • Technologies & National User Programs
  • Departments
    • Climate Sciences
    • Ecology
    • Geochemistry
    • Geophysics
    • Hydrogeology
    • Operations
  • News & Events
    • News
    • Events
    • Earth & Environment Newsletter
  • Intranet
  • Safety
    • EESA Safety
  • FoW
  • Search

  • all
  • people
  • events
  • posts
  • pages
  • projects
  • publications

As the World Warms, the Coastal Western U.S. is Slated to Experience More Dramatic Atmospheric Rivers and Increased Flood Damages3 min read

by Priyanka Runwal on July 27, 2021

Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division

 

Stormy weather and waves in the Pacific Ocean, Shutterstock

In the atmosphere, long, narrow, whip-like plumes carry water vapor from the tropics to the mid latitudes. These plumes are shaped by variability in and geographic differences in air pressure. Stretching longer than 1,000 miles, these rivers in the sky called atmospheric rivers can transport massive water vapor amounts, sometimes as much as 15 times the water flow at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Upon landfall, they dump rain and snow, and can cause severe flooding and overwhelm reservoirs. But less intense atmospheric river events are beneficial to drought-stricken regions.

Take the coastal western U.S., for example, where atmospheric rivers account for nearly 50 percent of the region’s annual precipitation in a span of less than 15 days. Now, a new Berkeley Lab study published in Weather and Climate Extremes finds that global warming will deliver bigger and wetter atmospheric river storms to the Pacific Coast, with a subtle but important uptick in the fraction that are deemed hazardous to water resource management. This increase in hazardous atmospheric river storms could translate to billions of dollars in flood damages, costing, on average, an additional billion dollars for every degree Celsius rise in global temperature.

“This has implications for water management in the future,” says Alan Rhoades, a hydroclimate research scientist in Berkeley Lab’s Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division and lead author of the study, “as water managers balance flood control and reservoir storage for water supply.”

As air warms, its capacity to “hold” water vapor increases. For every degree Celsius spike in air temperature, scientists predict an approximate seven percent increase in air’s capacity to “hold” water. That means with global warming, there’s potential for future atmospheric rivers to produce more rain upon landfall.

Between 1987 and 2017, just 13 atmospheric river events spanning 65 days were responsible for more than $1 billion in flood damages in the western U.S. To assess the characteristics of future atmospheric rivers, Rhoades and his collaborators used computer models to simulate different global warming scenarios and estimated the frequency and intensity of atmospheric river events that may occur along coastal western U.S. They found that with an increase of three degrees Celsius in global temperatures from the 2006-2015 baseline, the number of landfalling atmospheric rivers that reach at least a Category 1 event increased from 19 each year to nearly 24. With every degree spike, the researchers estimated that the atmospheric rivers become 15 percent larger in size and last six hours longer.

That meant an increase from 2 to nearly 8 percent in the proportion of hazardous category 4 and 5 atmospheric river events for a three-degree Celsius warming scenario, while the beneficial category 1 and 2 atmospheric river events dipped from 91 to 78 percent. Flood damages are closely tied to these hazardous events, as they incur an order of magnitude higher cost than the category 1 and 2 atmospheric rivers. For a three-degree Celsius warming, the researchers estimate flood damage costs will increase, on average, from nearly $1 billion to $3.25 billion each year.

“We’ve shown that there is a lot at stake as the world warms,” Rhoades says. “If we don’t start reducing emissions pretty dramatically over the next 10 years, subtle increases in category 4 or 5 atmospheric rivers could occur and this translates to a lot of flood damage potential and billions of dollars.”

News & Events

EESA Scientists Investigate How Tropical Soil Microbes Might Respond to Future Droughts2 min read

March 14, 2023

As the most biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems on Earth, tropical rainforests are just as critical to sustaining environmental and human systems as they are beautiful. Their unique climate with high temperatures, humidity, and precipitation promotes high primary productivity, which offsets high respiration, resulting in these ecosystems being one of the largest carbon sinks on Earth,…

Doubling Protected Lands for Biodiversity Could Require Tradeoffs With Other Land Uses, Study Finds4 min read

March 3, 2023

This article first appeared on lbl.gov. Scientists show how 30% protected land targets may not safeguard biodiversity hotspots and may negatively affect other sectors – and how data and analysis can support effective conservation and land use planning Although more than half the world’s countries have committed to protecting at least 30% of land and oceans…

Six Berkeley Lab Scientists Named AAAS Fellows6 min read

This article first appeared at lbl.gov Six researchers have been elected into the 2022 class of the American Association for the Advancement of Science The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) has announced their 2022 Fellows, including six scientists from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). This lifetime honor, which follows…

Kenichi Soga named to National Academy of Engineers1 min read

February 23, 2023

Faculty scientist Kenichi Soga was named to the National Academy of Engineering (NA), one of the highest honors that can be achieved as an American engineer. Soga is the Donald H. McLaughlin Chair in Mineral Engineering and a Chancellor’s Professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and has conducted groundbreaking research from infrastructure sensing to…

  • Our People
    • Area Offices
    • Committees
    • Directors
    • Organizational Charts
    • Postdocs
    • Staff Only
    • Search by Expertise
  • Departments
    • Climate Sciences
    • Ecology
    • Geochemistry
    • Geophysics
    • Hydrogeology
  • Research
    • Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division
    • Energy Geosciences Division
    • Program Domains
      • Programs
    • Projects
  • Contact
    • 510 486 6455
    • eesawebmaster@lbl.gov
    • Our Identity

Earth and Environmental Sciences Area Logo DOE Earth and Environmental Sciences Area Logo UC

A U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory Managed by the University of California

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory · Earth and Environmental Sciences Area · Privacy & Security Notice