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Improved Earth System Model Could Help Better Predict Impact of Extreme Events2 min read

by Christina Procopiou on November 10, 2021

Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
This article appeared originally at newscenter.lbl.gov
image of earth with grid lines

A model of the North American Regionally Refined Model grid showing the grid refinement that includes a 100-kilometer grid globally and 25 kilometers over North America. DOE’s Earth system model has been improved to create more realistic simulations of different ecosystem factors that are influenced by environmental changes. (Credit: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

This year alone Texas froze over and the Sierra Nevada forests that help sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere burned on and on from the Caldor Fire – two sure signs of the need to better predict extreme events caused by climate change, and the effect these events have on ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration by plants and soils.

Doing so requires realistic, high-resolution simulations of environmental changes taking place across oceans, land, and ice generated by Earth system models running on the most powerful, advanced computers. The Department of Energy relies on a new, faster version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to help anticipate changes 10, 20, or 50 years from now in factors like regional air and water temperatures that can strain energy grids, and extreme events like wildfires and flooding that could shut down infrastructure.

Berkeley Lab scientists have contributed to improving the land component of the latest release of this model – dubbed E3SM2 – which can now generate more precise simulations twice as fast as before. Berkeley Lab scientist William Riley said the improved representations of processes and interactions taking place across Earth’s land component can help scientists better predict extreme events, and disentangle the many complex factors driving ecosystem dynamics, such as changes in vegetation or carbon cycling.

“The improved land model, new with E3SM2, allows us to depict various factors in finer detail, such as how trees and plants will respond to stressors like drought and wildfire, or whether soils – which have been shown to lose carbon as temperatures rise – will become warmer over time,” said Riley.

If, for example, a plant community were to change from one dominated by large, old-growth trees that sequester a lot of carbon dioxide to one full of shorter shrubs that do not, that would have a big impact on the cycling of carbon between land and air.

“Our group is also pioneering the use of machine-learning approaches for wildfire and methane emissions projections and interpretation of the complex interactions underlying Earth’s surface energy and carbon dynamics, for example soil carbon dynamics,” Riley said

News & Events

Former Intern Emily Nagamoto Wins AGU Award1 min read

March 27, 2023

Former Science Undergraduate Laboratory Intern (SULI) Emily Nagamoto received an American Geophysical Union (AGU) Outstanding Presentation Award, which honors exceptional presentations given during AGU’s 2022 Fall meeting. She was mentored by Staff Scientist Charuleka Varadharajan and Postdoctoral Research Fellow Mohammed Ombadi during her Summer 2022 SULI term. Currently an undergraduate student in Duke University’s Nicholas…

EESA Scientists Investigate How Tropical Soil Microbes Might Respond to Future Droughts2 min read

March 14, 2023

As the most biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems on Earth, tropical rainforests are just as critical to sustaining environmental and human systems as they are beautiful. Their unique climate with high temperatures, humidity, and precipitation promotes high primary productivity, which offsets high respiration, resulting in these ecosystems being one of the largest carbon sinks on Earth,…

Doubling Protected Lands for Biodiversity Could Require Tradeoffs With Other Land Uses, Study Finds4 min read

March 3, 2023

This article first appeared on lbl.gov. Scientists show how 30% protected land targets may not safeguard biodiversity hotspots and may negatively affect other sectors – and how data and analysis can support effective conservation and land use planning Although more than half the world’s countries have committed to protecting at least 30% of land and oceans…

Six Berkeley Lab Scientists Named AAAS Fellows6 min read

This article first appeared at lbl.gov Six researchers have been elected into the 2022 class of the American Association for the Advancement of Science The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) has announced their 2022 Fellows, including six scientists from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). This lifetime honor, which follows…

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