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EESA Scientists Model Watershed Response to Future Climate Extremes3 min read

by Julie Bobyock on August 30, 2022

Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division

Berkeley Lab scientists used modeling to simulate annual percent changes in precipitation, rainfall, snowfall, temperature, snowpack, evapotranspiration, surface water, and groundwater storages in end-of-century wet, dry, and average water years.

California has the fifth largest economy in the world and is home to one of the largest agricultural regions in the United States. However, the state’s water resources are extremely vulnerable to climate change–in part because much of historical precipitation falls at or near the freezing line, so that small increases in temperature will have big hydroclimatic impacts–but also because California receives much of its water from only a handful of storms per year. Scientists also predict the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountain range–a significant source of Western water–– could largely decrease or even disappear in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting how water resources will be affected by climate change is crucial to creating and implementing water-resource management strategies that take into account a future with different hydrology.

EESA scientists Alan Rhoades and Erica Siirila-Woodburn recently contributed to a study published by European Geosciences Union in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences that investigates how water may be impacted by predicted end-of-century extreme dry and wet years. The team paired cutting-edge global climate and hydrology models to simulate these extremes in the Cosumnes Watershed, which contains one of the last naturally flowing rivers, to study an environment without large-scale water management. The researchers showed that, in all water year types–wet, average, and dry–end-of-century temperature and precipitation increased.

“Unlike other climate change projection studies which try to predict the impacts on the hydrologic cycle with so-called “pseudo-climate change” or “delta” approaches that assume some fixed amount of atmospheric warming,” Siirila-Woodburn explained, “we wanted to drive a hydrologic model with atmospheric forcing that considers global atmospheric patterns and processes, without any implicit assumptions on the outcome of those changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Historically, there has been a mismatch between the scale at which hydrologic and earth system models are run–making their pairing difficult. Now, with advancements in high performance computing and variable-resolution models, we’re able to produce outputs suitable for hydrologic models and to make predictions like the ones from this study.”  

The study demonstrated that the impact of high emissions through the end of the century on this northern California watershed–and likely others like it–is higher temperatures, more precipitation in the form of rain instead of snow, and significant changes in the timing of surface water discharge and seasonal groundwater storage trends. Peak streamflow may also be much higher, a consideration for flooding and reservoir management. They also showed that, with higher end-of-century temperatures and soil moisture, evapotranspiration–the combined flux of water from transpiration and evaporation–also increased. These changes are projected to lead to a decrease in both summer surface water and, more substantially, groundwater storage. 

Interestingly, the model also predicts shifts in hydrologic spatial patterns. End-of-century streams may run dry during parts of the year, with more focused streamflow in the mainstem of the river network during the summer. This is an important consideration for ecosystem habitats, streamflow chemistry, and water resource availability.    

This study provides a new and detailed understanding of how watersheds may respond to climate extremes. Better predictions of how water resources may be altered in the future allow for more proactive management, adaptation, and the opportunity to ensure water is available, both for the millions of California residents and the crucial agricultural industry that the state supports. 

News & Events

EESA Scientists Investigate How Tropical Soil Microbes Might Respond to Future Droughts2 min read

March 14, 2023

As the most biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems on Earth, tropical rainforests are just as critical to sustaining environmental and human systems as they are beautiful. Their unique climate with high temperatures, humidity, and precipitation promotes high primary productivity, which offsets high respiration, resulting in these ecosystems being one of the largest carbon sinks on Earth,…

Doubling Protected Lands for Biodiversity Could Require Tradeoffs With Other Land Uses, Study Finds4 min read

March 3, 2023

This article first appeared on lbl.gov. Scientists show how 30% protected land targets may not safeguard biodiversity hotspots and may negatively affect other sectors – and how data and analysis can support effective conservation and land use planning Although more than half the world’s countries have committed to protecting at least 30% of land and oceans…

Six Berkeley Lab Scientists Named AAAS Fellows6 min read

This article first appeared at lbl.gov Six researchers have been elected into the 2022 class of the American Association for the Advancement of Science The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) has announced their 2022 Fellows, including six scientists from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). This lifetime honor, which follows…

Kenichi Soga named to National Academy of Engineers1 min read

February 23, 2023

Faculty scientist Kenichi Soga was named to the National Academy of Engineering (NA), one of the highest honors that can be achieved as an American engineer. Soga is the Donald H. McLaughlin Chair in Mineral Engineering and a Chancellor’s Professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and has conducted groundbreaking research from infrastructure sensing to…

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